Bizlife Smarts

Do you differentiate trends between prevailing tendencies and disruption? Old fogies would say, ‘I can feel it in my gut’, ‘been here, done this before’. However, nowadays, companies have trends analysis, trading in trends surveys and trends forecasting. Have we made things too complex? I say an emphatic ‘no!’. The conventional wisdom is that markets and categories have become too complex and highly leveraged. We can’t afford to shoot from the hip anymore and must use trends knowledge to plan ahead.

Trends are defined as prevailing tendencies, while disruption is defined as radical change within a market. I hear most trends conversations lumping prevailing tendencies and radical changes under than one banner of trends. But disruption has become so prevalent that we need to distinguish between the two. Sometimes a phenomenon may fall into both categories of prevailing tendencies and disruption; but those are exceptions.

Trends

Trend 1: Strong women

We saw women’s composition of the U.S. House of Representatives increase by 14.6% from 89 to 102 in the 2018 mid-term elections. However, I don’t find the 23% out of 435 total seats that impressive, as it falls well short of the 50%+ women’s representation in the U.S. population. Although what I do find absolutely impressive is the nature of these women. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/03/us-enters-new-phase-as-women-change-the-face-of-congress

As we watch Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez become the most celebrated of the new members, let’s not forget that she leads a cohort of 5 women below the age of 35; who aren’t even eligible to be President today. And she is also joined by the first Native American women in the House, Deb Haaland and Sharice Davids. Similarly, the first Muslim women in the House, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib.

But it’s not just in politics that we see this. As we look at the innovation businesses that are our future, we are seeing strong women trailblazing across sectors. We see strong women in technology sector business development like Dara Treseder at GE Ventures. We see strong women Founder CEOs like Edith Harbaugh in software development, Silvina Moschini in Cloud-based management and Falon Fatemi in A-I technology. And there are many more. https://readwrite.com/2018/06/25/15-incredible-women-in-business-to-watch-in-2018-and-beyond/

Trend 2: Drinking prevailing tendencies

Growing up our experience with alcohol was that discerning tastes were for old fogies. Young people drank whatever swill we could afford or was available. But that is no longer the case. There are two dynamics at work. Firstly, drinkers both young and old are becoming more discriminating in their choice of drink, outside of the traditional drinks. Thus, craft beers instead of mainstream beer; alcopops instead of cocktails; single malts instead of cheap whisky; wine over spirits and beer.

Secondly, we see people simply drinking less. A combination of changing societal mores, wider substance choices and health concerns are making us drink less. We simply don’t find it acceptable or as cool as it was a decade or two ago, to go out and get blotto! The responsible drinking mantra has struck home in many segments of society and people literally are, ‘enjoying their drink responsibly’ with the emphasis on enjoy, as in savour. We’ll see this declining trend continue as the legalisation of marjiuana spreads. Chrystal Cha has covered this topic pretty well. https://blog.brandbastion.com/11-trends-to-watch-for-alcoholic-beverage-marketing-in-2018

Trend 3: e-Commerce: from electronic to experiential

When I first became a part of the eCommerce world, it was to purchase an internet subscription; antivirus security I believe it was. It was a simple but arduous transaction.I had to check all the cost/benefit options available, ‘ummming’ and ‘aaahhing’ and then finally running that pesky credit card payment. I didn’t enjoy the experience, but had to do it. As I have increasingly used more eCommerce services and platforms, including mobile money, I find that I postpone the engagement until the last minute possible. For me, it’s like going to the bank: Chinese water torture. I find it detached, disengaged and purely transactional in nature.

…and then I discovered Amazon…

The Amazon experience

Once I signed up, I’d usually go onto the Amazon website looking for an item in a specific category. They’d spit back a range of choices to purchase. I didn’t always buy the cheapest because often, their presentation of the options would lead me to by the most cost-effective, i.e., the best value. Now, I end up buying more items than I intend. They suggest other items I’d be interested in, based on my purchase and product interest patterns, and I’m hooked.

Amazon is a step ahead of others and has begun to turn their superior online buying experience and brand identity into blurred lines between online and offline. This is through their Amazon Experience Centres and Amazon Go convenience stores. https://www.recode.net/2019/1/4/18166934/amazon-go-stores-revenue-estimates-cashierless

But for all those playing catch-up, it’s about going beyond the simple lowest cost, transactional online buying model. Adding elements of brand identity and positive aspects of the offline shopping experience, to a company’s online eCommerce presence are key approaches. Customer personalisation is essential to this so that each buyer feels that connection with the company. https://artversion.com/blog/reinventing-retail-tapping-experiential-ecommerce/

Disruption

We now move from trends to disruption, where radical change delivers a jolt to the conventional market.

Legalization of cannabis

I recall being in California when the legalisation of marijuana went into effect in January 2018. It instantly transformed from negative associations with marijuana as an illicit drug; even in the references.

And instantly overnight, as respectable businessmen and financiers moved in to establish legalised enterprises, I saw references and language change to give it a respectable image.

This disruptor has already created a new industry in the medical field with CBD (therapeutic). Now with the newly legalised THC (psychoactive) part will provide competition to other recreational mind-altering substances. But also, as it is developed into additives to other products like drinks and foods, it will impact the existing players in fields ranging from alcohol to confectionaries and baked goods.

Ditch fad diets and enjoy our food again

Vegan, low-fat diet, low-carb diet, the atkins diet, the south beach diet, red meat free, keto diet or paleo diet. We’ve been hearing all these buzzwords regarding healthy eating and quite frankly for a while they simply made my head spin. Many of us not only didn’t understand what the benefits of some of them really were.

Progressive thinking companies have realised that nutrient infusion into foods enables us to eat healthily and still enjoy our food. We no longer have to deprive ourselves for healthy eating nor get into fad diets like the keto and paleo diets. As Sabrina Rojas Weiss writes, from probiotic infused bars and drinks, to pork rinds made from mushrooms, to healthy oils in our foods (yes oil!), to cannabis infused coffee and beer; food is about to get fun again folks!

We are living in an age where food technology has advanced to the point where healthy eating and delicious food no longer have to be at odds. That is a disruptor to all those diet promoters and traditional health food companies. https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/food-trends-2019

Direction change in post-graduate education

The issue

Universities need to plan for a significant drop off in enrollment in their post-graduate, Master’s level studies. In many countries, the return on investment from post-graduate education has diminished to the point that it’s simply not worthwhile. In the 1st World, unless it is a technical, specialised field of study, a Master’s degree gives you few advantages in the job market. So, good bye to MBAs, Masters in Social Studies et. al. In the Developing World, it’s even worse; there are no jobs, so it’s not worthwhile to invest in post-graduate study and then remain jobless, at best, or settle for a job that doesn’t require the qualification. The Washington Post picked up indicators of this phenomenon way back in 2015, and the time has come when we will begin to see these effects. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/grade-point/wp/2015/04/13/are-masters-degrees-on-their-way-out-alternatives-grow-as-enrollment-fades/?utm_term=.f0c2dda6af2b

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/analysis/editorials/Postgraduate-enrolment-fall-calls-for-reality-check/4259378-4869792-kq5mdh/index.html

Changes in Master’s programme enrollment

Today, circumstances have pushed our youth into various pathways to obtaining their positions in the workplace and pursuing their careers. Computer & network engineering, software development, web retailing, social media marketing & influencing, blogging, entertainment; or even temporary work abroad or just plain hustling in the retail and trading marketplace are all real career options for millenials and centennials (Gen Z). The instant gratification nature and mindset of these two groups makes these careers more attractive to them, as opposed to sinking $50,000 in debt to get an MBA or Master of Arts or Social Sciences.

I’m not saying that the Master’s education pathway will collapse. The technical and technology Master’s disciplines will continue to grow and thrive. The disruption will be that universities that don’t adapt their course offerings and begin re-structuring, recruitment and re-staffing for the future, will suffer. The marketplace is no longer interested in absorbing and remunerating the glut of MBAs and Masters of Arts and Social Studies graduates. The growth area for Master’s study and focus for the job market will be in the technical fields and technology, particularly in engineering. You can see it from the top paying careers for college graduates, many for which a post-graduate degree is advantageous, but not always essential. https://www.collegechoice.net/50-highest-paying-careers-college-graduates/

Outtake

We can take the trends as instructive and see how to piggy-back them or adapt to them. However, we ignore the predicted disruption at our own peril. This list is not exhaustive and although being my own top 3s, are the ones that I see to have true economic/ financial value, instead of simply being page fillers. You may have your own researched trends and disruptions, but overall it’s simply important to look forward in order to have a prosperous 2019 business life!